While US President Donald Trump threatened Friday to hit hard “these deranged scumbags”, the Iranian military has now effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz after attacking six more ships in the last 48 hours.
The total number of vessels attacked since the start of the war stands at 18, according to reports by UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) and the maritime intelligence company Vanguard. Yesterday, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, in his first public statement, vowed to block the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely.
UKMTO reported the ships had been “struck by an unknown projectile”.
Oil markets are now bracing for long-lasting turmoil, which is likely to lead to a global economic decline, particularly affecting poorer countries in Africa and Asia.
The BBC reported Safesea Vishnu, a US-owned vessel heading to India, was hit by an “unmanned speed boat carrying explosives” which “rammed into it, resulting in a major fire onboard”.
“In theory, Iran can keep threatening shipping indefinitely,” Nick Brown from the defence intelligence company Janes told the BBC. “Iranian forces are well practised in decoy, camouflage and subterfuge tactics, and many of their smaller weapons can be disguised in commercial vehicles, hidden in buildings and out of sight along Iran’s long coastline,” he added.
The locations of the strikes on vessels reported by UKMTO and Vanguard show the attacks have spanned the length of the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, but most have been concentrated near the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world’s oil – around 20 million barrels per day – usually transits through the narrow corridor.
“No ship wants to pass through there, and no insurer wants to insure those ships that are passing through there. This is the scenario that we’ve all been predicting for a long time – the closing of the strait, which is a nightmare,” Neil Quilliam from the Chatham House think-tank told the BBC. Iran has also struck a number of oil facilities and depots in the Gulf region since the conflict began on 28 February, spanning Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.